by Al Massey
This “thing” we call the Internet continues to grow at an alarming pace but there are indications that the growth spurt is slowing somewhat. The all-knowing prognosticators at the Ziff-Davis research arm, Computer Intelligence, allow as how there are som e 37 million PCs (that’s U.S. PCs) connected to the ‘Net at the present time.
This is up some nineteen percent from a year ago and, if true, is way off from the nearly seventy percent increase registered in 1996.
Computer Intelligence (CI) is not alone because I have seen studies from a number of other bean counters that seem to bear out the fact that the Internet, at least the U.S. portion, is growing slower than in past years. If so, I feel that one reason is t he so-called “Bandwidth Backlash” that has been building for several months now. The Deloitte Consulting group reports that a recent survey shows corporate America is becoming somewhat disappointed with rising Internet costs and lack of bandwidth. They a re expressing their dissatisfaction in a number of ways but the most alarming is a reluctance to “expand” their spending on Internet-related activities.
Some sixty-nine percent of the Deloitte respondents cited “significant concern” over rising cost and diminishing bandwidth as opposed to only sixteen percent last year. The study continued by reporting thirty-one percent were planning to increase their “ Internet” spending as opposed to sixty-five percent last time around. Is anybody listening? Lost productivity by surfing employees, security and privacy worries and the “been there, done that” syndrome are other reasons cited in the study.
I hate to douse the pessimistic fires of these studies but the day of critical mass, when bandwidth meets demand, is rapidly approaching. Compression, caching of home pages, cable modems, DSL technology and schemes too numerous to mention are converging to make the Internet ubiquitous. A new lifestyle - where e-commerce will become a reality for the average citizen, and the ‘Net supplants TV to become an entertainment medium. The times, they truly are a-changing.
“Keyboard: The standard way to generate computer errors.”
There is an old concept that says “the value of the network increases as the number of individuals on the network increases.” According to the seers, over the next two years sixty percent of the jobs will require high tech skills. Jobs in the so-called h igh tech sector typically pay some seventy-three percent more than low tech ones.
The fastest growing occupations in the United States right now are computer scientists, computer engineers, and systems analysts. Not surprisingly, a vast new bureaucracy, with an initial funding of $2.5 billion, has been formed to address this disparity .
The School and Library program, a part of the Universal Service Fund under the jurisdiction of our very own FCC, has been designed to create educational resources that will give all Americans the opportunity to realize the advantages of technology. At it s core the program is supposed to provide fundamental technical skills, the same way we now teach our children to read, write and do arithmetic.
Combined with Universal Access, the program has the potential to bring all the advantages of the Information Society to all of us, even those of us stuck in the remotest parts of the country. Utopia is supposed to reign. Folks will have access to valuabl e health and medical information. Farmers will be able to get the latest info on crop rotation and erosion. Universities are going to be open to anyone anywhere at any time. Life is going to be great. What a wonderful life it will be.
There is just one little bitty problem. Who or what is going to pay for it? I would hold some hope for this ideal if only its birthplace was somewhere other than our Nation’s capital. The ink was still wet when the clarion call went out from a large numb er of US senators that have the bright idea that it should be paid for by Internet Service Providers and, ultimately, you and me in the form of, well guess what, user fees.
Currently ISPs are exempt from paying into the Universal Service Fund or for paying access charges. That’s today, I can’t wait to see what tomorrow will bring.
Already, what started out as a pretty neat idea has been shanghaied. The Universal Service Fund began life as one corporation, NECA. Within days of coming to the attention of the Senate it was split into three, the Universal Service Corp., the School and Library Corp., and the Rural Health Care Corp. Divided we conquer. Oh, did I mention the head of the School and Library Corp. is now pulling down $300,000 a year?
It sure is nice to see that the more things change, the more they stay the same. It seems that so much discussion took place on deciding who pays and how much the top dog should make and other bureaucratic wrangling that they have fallen slightly behind schedule. They were all set to start up on January 1 but because of delays no applications have been accepted yet and schools will be unable to receive any funding in the first quarter.
But never fear, they have been busy dissecting the parts of the Internet that are covered by the fund. Items covered include routers and servers, LANS and installation of equipment, but modems and WANS are not.
This is just another indication that our part of the Internet is headed for the muck and mire of bureaucratic hell.
“Portable Computer: A device invented to force businessmen to work at home, on vacation and on business trips.”
IBM, COMPAQ, Digital Equipment, Texas Instruments and a host of others are reporting less than stellar earnings. All seem to be infected with a new strain of “Asian Flu.” Some Silicon Valley high techs want to blame poor earnings on El Nino, but it appea rs that the troubled far eastern stock markets have a greater effect on performance than anything.
Just another example of the Internet at work. News travels at far greater speeds than ever before and if Hong Kong reports currency exchange problems at the close of business it impacts money markets around the globe in a matter of seconds. The global ec onomy is not for the faint of heart.
Al Massey is a HAL-PC member who can be contacted at almass@hal-pc.org.
E-mail me at webmaster@hal-pc.org with any comments you have and tell me what you want to see here.